What the numbers say
One income line, nine different promises
Texas runs its public flagships differently from most states, and the difference starts with who sets the price. Under the state's Education Code, each university's own governing board sets its “designated tuition,” so the price is set campus by campus, not in Austin. The statewide TEXAS Grant, meanwhile, pays the same amount everywhere: the state average of tuition and fees. So the grant is the same at every campus while the prices differ. Each campus has to close that gap itself, and each of the University of Texas System's 9 academic campuses has done it with a promise program of its own design.
“In addition to amounts that a governing board of an institution of higher education is authorized to charge as tuition under the other provisions of this chapter, the governing board, under the terms the governing board considers appropriate, may charge any student an amount designated as tuition that the governing board considers necessary for the effective operation of the institution.”
“The amount of a TEXAS grant for a semester or term for a person enrolled full-time at an eligible institution is an amount determined by the coordinating board as the average statewide amount of tuition and required fees that a resident student enrolled full-time in a baccalaureate degree program would be charged for that semester or term at general academic teaching institutions.”
We read all nine promise pages side by side, checking every quote word for word against its source, and a surprising picture emerged. The income lines have converged: seven campuses cover tuition for families under $100,000, Rio Grande Valley reaches to $125,000, and Austin adds partial support from $100,000 to $125,000. What has not converged is everything underneath the line. So the question this guide answers is not which campus promises the most, but which campus's conditions a real family can meet for four years.
Figures projected to 2027 entry and recomputed every time this page is built, so they track current costs, federal loan rates and tax rules. Shares and medians describe our scenario grid — an evenly spaced sweep of incomes and savings levels — not the distribution of actual families.
The conditions are the policy
Three of the nine sets of rules matter most, because each can cost a family the award, either mid-degree or before it starts.
Dallas covers tuition only up to the family's financial need. The FAFSA or TASFA measures that need, so a family under the income line with substantial savings can be covered for less than full tuition. No other UT campus states such a cap. The promise is real, but for a family with a lot saved it works like a need calculation under a promise's name.
“Tuition and mandatory fees will be covered up to demonstrated financial need, as determined by the FAFSA or TASFA.”
San Antonio adds a grade requirement. Bold Promise requires a class rank in the top 25 percent. It is the only academic requirement in the System, and it is set in high school, long before any financial form is filed.
“Rank in top 25% of high school class at the point of admission Enroll full-time (12 credit hours or more) each semester”
Arlington checks the income line again every tax year. A raise mid-degree can end the award. Stephen F. Austin checks every year too, but adds the forgiving half: a student who loses eligibility because income rose gets it back if a later year's income falls under the line again. A family whose income moves around the line should treat those two rules as different programs, because they are.
“Have a combined student and parent adjusted gross income of $100,000 or less each tax year.”
“If you lose Purple Promise eligibility due to an increase in your combined family adjusted gross income, you can qualify in future years if the adjusted gross income becomes $100,000 or less and you continue to meet all other criteria.”
What the promises cover differs too: tuition and mandatory fees at most campuses, tuition and course fees at Arlington, and tuition alone in Austin's own wording. Same line, nine promises. Before a Texas family counts on any of them, the question is whether their circumstances can meet its conditions (the need cap, the rank requirement, the yearly income check) every single year.
What the line is worth at Austin
To price the line itself, we priced the same families at UT Austin on both sides of it: $90,000 of income with tuition covered, and $130,000 with no promise grant. We chose both incomes to stay clear of Austin's partial support between $100,000 and $125,000, which Austin does not put a number on. Over four years, the covered families paid a median of $61,545, and the uncovered families paid a median of $124,617. The line is worth $63,072.
“Under this expansion, Texas residents entering UT Austin as freshman or transfer students, as well as continuing students with family-adjusted gross incomes (AGIs) of up to $100,000, will have tuition covered with gift monies up to tuition.”
Two things make the real step smaller. Austin's own wording covers tuition, while our cost data combines tuition and fees in one figure, which we counted as fully covered. And the partial support between $100,000 and $125,000 softens the drop for families in that range, by an amount Austin does not state.
“Students with family AGIs between $100,000* and $125,000 will receive some financial assistance to help offset the cost of their tuition at UT Austin.”
System-wide, what planning is worth depends on whether you borrow
Away from the promise lines, priced at what each campus reports families in that income range receive, the UT System is inexpensive for lower-income families and ordinary for everyone else. Across our in-state scenarios, the order a family paid in was worth a median of $6,207: half came out above that, half below. Of all the savings, 35 percent came from one federal tax credit, the American Opportunity Tax Credit. It is worth up to $2,500 a year. It counts only tuition, required fees and books that you pay yourself, not from a 529 and not with a grant, and it takes $4,000 of those a year to get the full credit. Families who pay the first bill entirely from the 529 lose it without noticing. Just under half of our in-state scenarios, 47 percent, never borrow at all. The rest have the interest to deal with, and below $180,000 the credit as well.
Out of state, the problem changes. No Texas program applies, how the family borrowed was worth a median of $26,288, and 97 percent of that was interest. Debt the parents could not repay, more than one and a half times their income, appeared in 12 of 162 scenarios (7 percent). All 12 were out-of-state families, and 10 of them started with $2,000 in savings and no 529. For them, the useful decision is a different campus or a different state, and it is far better made in April than discovered in October.
What that looks like for four families
All four are at Rio Grande Valley, the cheapest campus, so these are the gentle end of the range, not the frightening end. We print every figure we used, including the aid we assumed and why. Each result is one family's, not an average, and none of them is a quote for you. The in-state grants are what each campus reports, on average, for families at that income who received aid. The top income range includes everyone over $110,000, so a family just over that often gets more aid than this shows.
| The family | Default | With a plan | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
$75,000 income · in-state $0 in a 529 · $2,000 cash · $500 a month We assume $12,201 a year in grants — what this campus reports families in this income range receive. | $47,080 | $47,080 | $0 |
$125,000 income · in-state $100,000 in a 529 · $30,000 cash · $500 a month We assume $3,331 a year in grants — what this campus reports families in this income range receive. | $82,518 | $72,618 | $9,900 mostly tax credits |
$75,000 income · out-of-state $0 in a 529 · $2,000 cash · $500 a month We assume $0 a year in grants — no Texas state aid assumed — the campus promise programs require Texas residency. | $245,600 | $215,600 | $30,000 mostly interest |
$125,000 income · out-of-state $100,000 in a 529 · $30,000 cash · $500 a month We assume $0 a year in grants — no Texas state aid assumed — the campus promise programs require Texas residency. | $135,925 | $129,325 | $6,600 mostly tax credits |
The 9 academic campuses, cheapest first
Bachelor's-degree campuses with complete cost data, projected to 2027. We leave out the System's health-science institutions, because a four-year undergraduate model would not describe them.
| Campus | In-state | Out-of-state |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Grande Valley | $18,391 | $29,143 |
| El Paso | $21,675 | $38,895 |
| San Antonio | $24,425 | $38,674 |
| Permian Basin | $26,101 | $39,506 |
| Tyler | $26,777 | $43,996 |
| Arlington | $27,603 | $46,870 |
| Stephen F Austin | $28,183 | $41,621 |
| Dallas | $32,571 | $60,435 |
| Austin | $34,144 | $70,445 |
What a plan is worth here, and to whom
What we sell is the payment plan itself: $99, built by the same calculations that priced these 162 scenarios. In Texas the plan's first job is unusual: testing whether a promise will hold.
For a family under the line, the promise pays tuition, but its conditions decide whether it keeps paying. A plan built on your own numbers can answer the questions this article can only raise. What do the four years look like if a raise crosses Arlington's yearly income check in year two? Does Dallas's need cap reach your savings? And what does it cost to get the housing and food bills wrong, since no Texas promise pays them? Across our in-state scenarios, paying in the order that costs least was worth a median of $6,207, and 35 percent of the savings was the tax credit, which you can capture yourself with the $4,000 rule above. The value of the plan is doing it against your award letter, with a fallback ready for each condition.
For a family above every income line, paying from savings, there is little to improve; a plan offers confirmation and one organized picture of four years. For an out-of-state family, it is the whole borrowing problem: how they borrow across four years, in the student's name and the parents', was worth a median of $26,288. And where the debt is more than the family could repay, the most valuable thing a plan can do is say so while there is still time to choose differently.
Build your plan →Guides to other systems
We do the same work for each system. The systems are built differently, so what is true of one is often false of another, and we write each guide from its own numbers.
Where the prices come from: the U.S. Department of Education's College Scorecard, carried forward to 2027. SmartTuition.ai worked out what each family described here would pay. SmartTuition.ai is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by any institution named here.